This season's American League Cy Young race pits traditional vs. modern interpretations of what it means to have a great season as a pitcher. For the past century plus, "wins" have been the commonly preferred indicator of pitching excellence. Only pitchers within three wins or so of the league lead were even considered in award voting. Other stats, such as innings pitched, strikeouts, and Earned Run Average (ERA) were used more as a tiebreaker.
In recent times, the win's preeminence as an indicator of pitching success has waned. ERA, innings, and strikeouts have gained traction, while Rotisserie (fantasy) leagues have popularized Walks and Hits per Inning Pitched (WHIP). In the past few years, "Sabermetrics" - named by baseball stats maven Bill James in honor of the Society of American Baseball Researchers - has introduced stats such as xFIP (fielding independent pitching, adjusted by ballpark and normalized to look like an ERA) and WAR (wins above replacement, which shows how many more wins a player would produce than a typical call-up from AAA). WAR, and to a lesser extent xFIP, are gaining traction in the mainstream media. And it's the mainstream media - baseball beat writers - who vote on the Cy Young Award.
Mariners star pitcher Felix Hernandez, amazingly just 24 years old, is the poster manchild for the shifting interpretations of pitching excellence. His 12-12 win loss record looks mediocre, but check out the run support for the top 10 ERA qualifiers. By almost every measure, Felix has been the dominant pitcher in the American League this year. If he doesn't take the Cy Young Award, it'll be more a reflection of the voters loyalty to one traditional statistic than of King Felix's performance.
| Pitcher | Team | W | L | ERA | IP | SO | WHIP | xFIP | WAR | Run Support |
| Hernandez | SEA | 12 | 12 | 2.31 | 241.2 | 227 | 1.06 | 3.26 | 6.1 | 3.76 |
| Buchholz | BOS | 16 | 7 | 2.39 | 165.2 | 115 | 1.23 | 4.24 | 3.4 | 6.79 |
| Cahill | OAK | 17 | 7 | 2.81 | 185.2 | 109 | 1.07 | 4.17 | 2.2 | 5.87 |
| Price | TB | 18 | 6 | 2.84 | 199.2 | 179 | 1.22 | 4.03 | 4.0 | 7.12 |
| Weaver | LAA | 13 | 11 | 2.99 | 210.2 | 220 | 1.07 | 3.56 | 5.6 | 5.21 |
| Lester | BOS | 18 | 8 | 3.06 | 197.0 | 212 | 1.17 | 3.56 | 5.6 | 6.85 |
| Wilson | TEX | 14 | 7 | 3.15 | 194.0 | 161 | 1.23 | 4.23 | 4.2 | 6.49 |
| Sabathia | NYY | 20 | 7 | 3.26 | 229.1 | 189 | 1.21 | 3.82 | 4.6 | 7.34 |
| Lee | TEX | 12 | 9 | 3.29 | 205.1 | 177 | 1.02 | 3.28 | 6.6 | 5.13 |
| Verlander | DET | 18 | 8 | 3.31 | 217.1 | 209 | 1.16 | 3.73 | 5.9 | 6.96 |
League leaders appear in bold.
Sources: Fangraphs for xFIP and WAR, ESPN.com for the rest.
Updated September 25, 2010
No comments:
Post a Comment